Counterintuitive Predictions
1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are True or False.
2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Reasonable or Unreasonable.
3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Good or Bad, Ethical or Unethical, Moral or Immoral.
Your Predictions
Before hearing about the Mammogram team at Kaiser Permanente Hospital or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.
First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).
Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).
Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)
Respond in three ways for each Premise.
1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right
Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?
The Article
Mammogram Team Learns from its Errors
The Premises
1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
1. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
2. true / reasonable / good
3. false / unreasonable / bad
4. true / reasonable / bad
5. likely / reasonable / good
6. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
7. likely / reasonable / bad
8. true / reasonable / good
9. likely / reasonable / bad
10. likely / reasonable / good
11. likely / reasonable / bad
12. likely / reasonable / bad
13. true / reasonable / bad
14. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
15. likely / reasonable / good
16. likely / reasonable / bad
17. likely / reasonable / good
18. true / reasonable / good
19. likely / reasonable / bad
20. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
21. likely / reasonable / good
22. likely / reasonable / bad
23. likely / reasonable / bad
24. true / reasonable / bad
25. likely / reasonable / bad
26. true / reasonable / bad
27. likely / reasonable / good
28. true / reasonable / bad
29. true / reasonable / bad
30. likely / not crazy / good
31. likely / reasonable / bad
32. true / reasonable / good
33. false / unreasonable / bad
34. false / unreasonable / wrong
35. likely / reasonable / good
36. likely / reasonable / good
37. likely / reasonable / bad
38. likely / reasonable / good
39. unlikely / unreasonable / wrong
40. likely / reasonable / wrong
41. likely / reasonable / bad
42. likely / reasonable / bad
43. likely / reasonable / good
44. likely / reasonable / good
45. true / reasonable / bad
46. likely / reasonable / good
47. true / reasonable / good
48. true / reasonable / good
49. false / reasonable / good
50. likely / reasonable / bad
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2.True/Reasonable/Good
3.False/Unreasonable/Bad
4.False/Unreasonable/Bad
5.True/Reasonable/Good
6.False/Unreasonable/Bad
7.True/Reasonable/Good
8.True/Reasonable/Good
9.True/Reasonable/Good
10.False/Reasonable/Good
11.True/Reasonable/Good
12.False/Unreasonable/Bad
13.False/Unreasonable/Bad
14.False/Unreasonable/Bad
15.False/Unreasonable/Wrong
16.False/Unreasonable/Bad
17.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
18.True/Reasonable/Good
19.Likely/Reasonable/Good
20.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
21.False/Reasonable/Bad
22.Likely/Reasonable/Good
23.Likely/Reasonable/Good
24.Likely/Unreasonable/Good
25.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
26.True/Reasonable/Bad
27.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
28.Likely/Reasonable/Good
29.True/Reasonable/Good
30.True/Reasonable/Good
31.Likely/Reasonable/Good
32.True/Reasonable/Good
33.Likely/Reasonable/Good
34.Likely/Reasonable/Good
35.Likely/Reasonable/Good
36.Likely/Reasonable/Good
37.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
38.True/Reasonable/Good
39.False/Unreasonable/Bad
40.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
41.True/Reasonable/Good
42.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
43.True/Reasonable/Good
44.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
45.False/Unreasonable/Bad
46.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
47.True/Reasonable/Good
48.Likely/Unreasonable/Good
49.False/Unreasonable/Bad
50.Likely/Reasonable/Good
LikeLike
8. False/reasonable/good
9. False/reasonable/bad
10. False/reasonable/good
11. True/reasonable/right
12. False/unreasonable/wrong
13. True/reasonable/good
14. False/unreasonable/bad
15. False/unreasonable/wrong
16. False/unreasonable/bad
17. False/unreasonable/wrong
18. True/reasonable/good
19. True/reasonable/good
20. True/reasonable/wrong
21. True/reasonable/wrong
22. True/reasonable/wrong
23. True/unreasonable/wrong
24. True/reasonable/bad
25. False/reasonable/bad
26. True/reasonable/right
27. True/reasonable/good
28. True/reasonable/right
29. True/reasonable/right
30. True/reasonable/right
31. True/reasonable/wrong
32. True/reasonable/good
33. False/unreasonable/bad
34. False/unreasonable/bad
35. False/reasonable/right
36. True/reasonable/good
37. False/unreasonable/bad
38. True/reasonable/good
39. False/unreasonable/wrong
40. False/unreasonable/good
41. False/unreasonable/wrong
42. Unlikely/unreasonable/bad
43. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
44. False/unreasonable/bad
45. False/unreasonable/wrong
46. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
47. True/reasonable/right
48. True/reasonable/right
49. True/reasonable/right
50. True/reasonable/good
LikeLike
1.false/ unreasonable/ bad
2.unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
3. false/ unreasonable/ bad
4.false/ unreasonable/ bad
5. unlikely/ unreaonable/bad
6. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
7. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
8. likely/ reasonable/ good
9. false/ unreasonable/ bad
10. likely/ reasonable/ good
11. likely/ reasonable/ good
12. likely/ reasonable/ bad
13. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
14. false/ unreasonable/ bad
15. false/ unreasonable/ bad
16. likely/ reasonable/ good
17. unlikely/ unreasonable/ good
18. false/ unreasonable/ good
19. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
20. false/ unreasonable/ bad
21. false/ unreasonable/ bad
22. likely/ reasonable/ bad
23. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
24. unlikely/ unreasonable/ good
25. false/ unreasonable/ good
26. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
27. likely/ reasonable/ good
28. likely/ reasonable/ bad
29. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
30. false/ unreasonable/ bad
31. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
32. likely/ reasonable/ good
33.unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
34. false/ unreasonable/ bad
35.likely/ reasonable/ good
36. likely/ reasonable/ good
37. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
38. likely/ reasonable/ bad
39. likely/ unreasonable/ bad
40. likely/ unreasonable/ bad
41. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
42. likely/ reasonable/ bad
43. false/ unreasonable/ bad
44. false/ unreasonable/ bad
45. false/ unreasonable/ bad
46. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
47. false/ unreasonable/ bad
48. likely/ reasonable/ good
49. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
50. likely/ reasonable/ good
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
4. True/Reasonable/Good
5. True/Reasonable/Good
6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. False/Reasonable/Good
8. True/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
10. False/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. True/Reasonable/Bad
14. True/Reasonable/Good
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. False/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Unreasonable/Bad
20. False/Reasonable/Bad
21. True/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Bad
25. True/Unreasonable/Bad
26. True/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
32. False/Reasonable/Bad
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
4. True/Reasonable/Good
5. True/Reasonable/Good
6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. False/Reasonable/Good
8. True/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
10. False/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. True/Reasonable/Bad
14. True/Reasonable/Good
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. False/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Unreasonable/Bad
20. False/Reasonable/Bad
21. True/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Bad
25. True/Unreasonable/Bad
26. True/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
32. False/Reasonable/Bad
33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. False/Unreasonable/Good
35. False/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
40. True/Unreasonable/Bad
41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
42. False/Reasonable/Bad
43.False/Unreasonable/Bad
44. True/Reasonable/Bad
45. False/Unreasonable/Bad
46. True/Reasonable/Good
47. False/Unreasonable/Bad
48. False/Reasonable/Bad
49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
50. False/Reasonable/Bad
LikeLike
1. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
2. True / Reasonable / Good
3. False / Unreasonable / Bad
4. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
5. True / Reasonable / Good
6. False / Reasonable / Good
7. False / Reasonable / Wrong
8. True / Reasonable / Right
9. False / Unreasonable / Bad
10. False / Crazy / Bad
11. True / Reasonable / Good
12. True / Reasonable / Good
13. False / Reasonable / Bad
14. False / Crazy / Wrong
15. True / Reasonable / Good
16. True / Reasonable / Right
17. True / Reasonable / Good
18. True / Reasonable / Good
19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
20. True / Unreasonable / Bad
21. True / Reasonable / Wrong
22. True / Reasonable / Bad
23. True / Reasonable / Right
24. True / Reasonable / Right
25. True / Reasonable / Right
26. True / Unreasonable / Bad
27. False / Unreasonable / Bad
28. True / Reasonable / Bad
29. True / Reasonable / Right
30. True / Reasonable / Right
31. True / Reasonable / Bad
32. True / Reasonable / Right
33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
34. False / Reasonable / Bad
35. True / Reasonable / Good
36. True / Reasonable / Good
37. True / Unreasonable / Bad
38. True / Reasonable / Good
39. False / Unreasonable / Bad
40. False / Unreasonable / Bad
41. False / Unreasonable / Bad
42. True / Unreasonable / Ba
43. True / Reasonable / Right
44. False / Crazy / Bad
45. False / Unreasonable / Bad
46. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
47. True / Reasonable / Right
48. True / Reasonable / Good
49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
50. True / Reasonable / Good
LikeLike
8.True/Not Crazy/Right
9. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Wrong
10. True/Reasonable/Good
11. False/Unreasonable/Bad
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. True/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. False/Reasonable/Bad
20. False/Unreasonable/Bad
21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
22. True/Reasonable/Good
23. True/Reasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Good
25. True/Reasonable/Bad
26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Reasonable/Good
28.
LikeLike
1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
False/Reasonable/Good
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
True/Reasonable/Good
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
True/reasonable/Good
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
False/Reasonable/Good
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
False/ Reasonable/Good
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
True/Reasonable/Bad
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
False/Reasonable/Good
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
False/Reasonable/Good
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
True/Reasonable/Good
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
True/Reasonable/Good
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
False/not crazy/good
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
False/Reasonable/Good
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
True/Reasonable/Good
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
True/Reasonable/Good
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
True/reasonable/Good
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
True/Reasonable/Bad
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
True/reasonable/Bad
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
True/Reasonable/Right
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
True/Reasonable/Good
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
False/Reasonable/Good
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
False/Unreasonable/Good
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
True/Reasonable/Good
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
True/Reasonable/Good
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
True/Reasonable/Good
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
False/Unreasonable/Bad
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
False/Unreasonable/Good
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
False/Unreasonable/Bad
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
True/Unreasonable/Bad
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
LikeLike
8.true
reasonable
good
9.unlikely
unreasonable
wrong
10.true
reasonable
right
11.unlikely
unreasonable
wrong
12.likely
reasonable
good
13.likely
reasonable
good
14.fale
unreasonable
bad
15.true
reasonable
good
16.likely
reasonable
good
17.unlikely
reasonable
bad
18.false
unlikely
bad
19.true
reasonable
bad
20.
LikeLike
8. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
9. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
10. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
11. Likely/ Not Crazy/ Right
12. Unlikely/ Batshit Crazy/ Wrong
13. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
15. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
16. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
17. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
18. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
19. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
20. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
21. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
22. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
23. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
24. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
26. True/Reasonable/Bad
27. Likely/Reasonable/Good
28. True/ Reasonable/Right
29. True/Reasonable/Good
30. True/ Not Insane/Good
31. Likely/Reasonable/Good
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. Likely/Reasonable/Good
34. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
35. Likely/Reasonable/Good
36.Likely/Reasonable/Good
LikeLike
8. Likely / Reasonable / Right
9. False / Reasonable / Wrong
10. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
11. True / Reasonable / Good
12. Likely / Reasonable / Right
13. False / Unreasonable / Bad
14. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
15. False / Unreasonable / Good
16. Likely / Reasonable / Good
17. Likely / Reasonable / Good
18. True / Reasonable / Good
19. Unlikely / Not Crazy / Right
20.
LikeLike
8. false/reasonable/good
9. false/reasonable/bad
10. false/reasonable/good
11. true/reasonable/right
12. false/unreasonable/wrong
13. true/reasonable/good
14. false/unreasonable/bad
15. false/unreasonable/wrong
16. false/unreasonable/bad
17. false/unreasonable/wrong
18. true/reasonable/good
19. true/reasonable/good
20. true/reasonable/wrong
21. true/reasonable/wrong
22. true/reasonable/wrong
23. true/unreasonable/wrong
24. true/reasonable/bad
25. false/reasonable/bad
26. true/reasonable/right
27. true/reasonable/good
28. true/reasonable/right
29. true/reasonable/right
30. true/reasonable/right
31. true/reasonable/wrong
32. true/reasonable/good
33. false/unreasonable/bad
34. false/unreasonable/bad
35. false/reasonable/right
36. true/reasonable/good
37. false/reasonable/bad
38. true/reasonable/good
LikeLike
bj112295
1. False / Reasonable / Bad
2. True / Unreasonable / Good
3. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
5. True / Reasonable / Good
6. False / Reasonable / Bad
7. Likely / Reasonable / Right
8. True / Not Crazy / Great
9. False / Unfair / Wrong
10. Likely / Reasonable / Good
11. True / Not Crazy / Right
12. True / Reasonable / Great
13. True / Unreasonable / Good
14. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
15. Likely / Reasonable / Right
16. True / Not Crazy / Great
17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
18. Likely / Not Crazy / Right
19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
20. False / Reasonable / Right
21. True / Not Crazy / Good
22. Likely / Not Crazy / Bad
23. True / Unreasonable / Bad
24. Likely / Reasonable / Good
25. Likely / Reasonable / Good
26. Not Likely / Not Crazy / Right
27. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
28. True / Reasonable / Wrong
29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
30. True / Reasonable / Good
31. False / Unreasonable / Bad
32. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
33. True / Not Crazy / Good
34. Likely / Not Crazy / Wrong
35. True / Reasonable / Great
36.
LikeLike
1) Unlikely/ Not insane / Wrong
2) True/ Reasonable/ Right
3) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
4) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
5) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
6) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
7) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
8) True/ Reasonable/ Good
9) Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
10) False/ Reasonable/ Good
11) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
12) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
13) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
14) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
15) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Good
16) True/ Reasonable/ Good
17) True/ Reasonable/ Good
18) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
19) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
20) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
21) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
22) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
23) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
24) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
25) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
26) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
27) True/ Reasonable/ Good
28) True/ Reasonable/ Good
29) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
30) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
31) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
32) True/Reasonable/ Good
33) True/ Reasonable/ Good
34) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Good
35) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
36) True/ Reasonable/ Good
37) False/ Reasonable/ Bad
38) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
39) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
40) False/ Reasonable/ Good
41) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
42) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
43) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
44) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
45) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
46) True/ Reasonable/ Good
47) True/Reasonable/ Good
48) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
49) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
50) True/ Reasonable/ Good
LikeLike
8. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
9. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
10. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
11. Likely/ Not Crazy/ Right
12. Unlikely/ Batshit Crazy/ Wrong
13. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
15. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
16. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
17. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
18. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
19. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
20. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
21. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
22. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
23. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
24. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
26. True/Reasonable/Bad
27. Likely/Reasonable/Good
28. True/ Reasonable/Right
29. True/Reasonable/Good
30. True/ Not Insane/Good
31. Likely/Reasonable/Good
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. Likely/Reasonable/Good
34. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
35. Likely/Reasonable/Good
36.Likely/Reasonable/Good
37. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
38.True/Reasonable/Good
39.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
40. Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
41.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
42. True/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
45. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
46. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. Likely/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
50.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
LikeLike
bj112295
1. False / Reasonable / Bad
2. True / Unreasonable / Good
3. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
5. True / Reasonable / Good
6. False / Reasonable / Bad
7. Likely / Reasonable / Right
8. True / Not Crazy / Great
9. False / Unfair / Wrong
10. Likely / Reasonable / Good
11. True / Not Crazy / Right
12. True / Reasonable / Great
13. True / Unreasonable / Good
14. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
15. Likely / Reasonable / Right
16. True / Not Crazy / Great
17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
18. Likely / Not Crazy / Right
19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
20. False / Reasonable / Right
21. True / Not Crazy / Good
22. Likely / Not Crazy / Bad
23. True / Unreasonable / Bad
24. Likely / Reasonable / Good
25. Likely / Reasonable / Good
26. Not Likely / Not Crazy / Right
27. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
28. True / Reasonable / Wrong
29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
30. True / Reasonable / Good
31. False / Unreasonable / Bad
32. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
33. True / Not Crazy / Good
34. Likely / Not Crazy / Wrong
35. True / Reasonable / Great
36. True / Reasonable /Good
37. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
38.True/Reasonable/Good
39.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
40. Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
41.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
42. True/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
45. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
46. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. Likely/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
50.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
LikeLike
1.False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
2. True/ Reasonable/ Good
3. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
4. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
5. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
6. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
7. True/ Reasonable/ Good
8. True/ Reasonable/ Good
9. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
10. True/ Reasonable/ Good
11. True/ Reasonable/ Good
12. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
13. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
14. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
15. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
16. True/ Reasonable/ Good
17. False/ Reasonable/ Good
18. True/ Reasonable/ Good
19. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
20. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
21. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
22. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
23. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
24. False/ Unreasonable/ Good
25. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad
26. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
27. True/ Reasonable/ Good
28. True/ Reasonable/ Good
29. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
30. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
31. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
32. True/ Reasonable/ Good
33. True/ Reasonable/ Good
34. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
35. False/ Reasonable/ Good
36. True/ Reasonable/ Good
37. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
38. True/ Reasonable/ Good
39. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
40. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
41. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
42. True/ Reaosnable/ Bad
43. True/ Reasonable/ Good
44. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
45. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
46. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
47. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
48. True/ Reasonable/Bad
49. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
50. False/ Reasonable/ Bad
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
6. False/Unreasonable/Bad
7. False/Reasonable/Bad
8. True/Not Crazy/Right
9. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Wrong
10. True/Reasonable/Good
11. False/Unreasonable/Bad
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. True/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. False/Reasonable/Bad
20. False/Unreasonable/Bad
21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
22. True/Reasonable/Good
23. True/Reasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Good
25. True/Reasonable/Bad
26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Reasonable/Good
28. True/Reasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Reasonable/Good
34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. False/Reasonable/Bad
37. True/Unreasonable/Good
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. False/Unreasonable/Bad
40. False/Reasonable/Bad
41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
42. True/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Bad
44. True/Unreasonable/Good
45. False/Reasonable/Bad
46. True/Unreasonable/Bad
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. False/Unreasonable/Good
49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
50. True/Reasonable.Good
LikeLike
1. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
4. True / Reasonable / Good
5. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
6. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
7. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
8. Unlikely / Reasonable / Very right
9. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
10. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
11. False / Reasonable / Bad
12. True / Reasonable / Good
13. False / Unreasonable / Bad
14. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
15. True / Unreasonable / Good
16. False / Reasonable / Good
17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
18. True / Reasonable / Good
19. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
20. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
21. True / Reasonable / Bad
22. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
23. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
24. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
25. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
26. True / Reasonable / Good
27. True / Unreasonable / Bad
28. Likely / Reasonable / Good
29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
30. True / Reasonable / Good
31. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
32. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
34. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
35. Likely / Reasonable / Good
36. Likely / Reasonable / Good
37. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
38. Unlikely / Reasonable / Very good
39. True / Unreasonable / Bad
40. Likely / Somewhat reasonable / Bad
41. Likely / Reasonable / Both
42. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
43. False / Reasonable / Good
44. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
45. Likely / Unreasonable / Good
46. True / Reasonable / Good
47. True / Reasonable / Bad
48. True / Reasonable / Good
49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
50. True / Unreasonable / Good
LikeLike
1. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad
2. True/ Reasonable/ Good
3. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
4. True/ Reasonable/ Good
5. False / Unreasonable/ Bad
6. True / Reasonable / Bad
7.True/ Reasonable/ Right
8.True/ Reasonable/ Good
9. True / Reasonable/ Bad
10.True / Reasonable / Good
11.Likely / Reasonable / Good
12. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
13. True/ Unreasonable/ Good
14. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
15. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
16. False, Unreasonable/ Bad
17. True/ Reasonable/ Good
18. True/ Reasonable/ Good
19. True/ Reasonable/ Good
20. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
21. Likely / Reasonable/ Bad
22. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
23. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad
24. True/ Reasonable / Bad
25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
26. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
27. Likely/ Unreasonable / Bad
28. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
29.Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
30. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
31. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
32. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
33. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
34. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
35. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
36. True/ Reasonable / Good
37. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
38. Likely Reasonable / Good
39. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
40. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
41. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
42. Likely / Unreasonable/ Bad
43. True/ Reasonable/ Good
44. True/ Reasonable / Good
45. False / Reasonable/ Bad
46. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
47. True/ Reasonable/ Good
48. False/ Unreasonable / Bad
49. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
50. Likely / Reasonable/ Bad
LikeLike
1.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
2.True/Reasonable/Ethical
3.False/Unreasonable/Unethical
4.False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
5.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
6.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
7.True/Reasonable/Ethical
8. True/Reasonable/Ethical
9. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
10. True/Reasonable/Ethical
11. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
12. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
13. False/Reasonable/Unethical
14. True/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
15. True/Reasonable/Ethical
16. False/Reasonable/Unethical
17. True/Reasonable/Unethical
18. True/Reasonable/Ethical
19. False/Unreasonable/Unethical
20. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
21. True/Reasonable/Unethical
22. True/Reasonable/Ethical
23. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
24. True/Reasonable/Ethical
25. True/Reasonable/Ethical
26. True/Reasonable/Ethical
27. True/Reasonable/Ethical
28. True/Reasonable/Ethical
29. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
30. True/Reasonable/Ethical
31. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
32. True/Reasonable/Ethical
33. False/Unreasonable/Unethical
34. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
35. True/Reasonable/Ethical
36. True/Reasonable/Ethical
37. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
38. True/Reasonable/Ethical
39. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
40. Likely/Reasonable/Not Wrong
41. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
42. Likely/Reasonable/Unethical
43. True/Reasonable/Ethical
44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
45. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
46. Unlikely/Reasonable/Unethical
47. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
48. Likely/Reasonable/Ethical
49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
50. True/Reasonable/Ethical
LikeLike
1. true/unreasonable/bad
2. likely/unreasonable/bad
3. false/unreasonable/bad
4. true/reasonable/good
5. false/unreasonable/bad
6. true/unreasonable/bad
7. true/unreasonable/bad
8. false/reasonable/good
9. false/reasonable/good
10. true/reasonable/good
11. false/reasoable/good
12. true/reasonable/good
13. true/unreasonable/bad
14. false/unreasonable/bad
15. false/unreasonable/good
16. false/unreasonable/good
17. false/unreasonable/bad
18. false/reasonable/good
19. true/unreasonable/good
20. false/unreasonable/bad
21. false/unreasonable/bad
22. true/reasonable/good
23. true/reasonable/bad
24. true/reasonable/good
25. true/reasonable/bad
26. false/unreasonable/bad
27. true/reasonable/good
28. true/reasonable/bad
29. false/unreasonable/bad
30. false/reasonable/bad
31. false/reasonable/bad
32. true/reasonable/good
33. true/reasonable/good
34. false/unreasonable/bad
35. false/reasonable/good
36. true/reasonable/good
37. true/reasonable/bad
38. true/reasonable/good
39. false/unreasonable/bad
40. likely/unreasonable/bad
41. likely/reasonable/bad
42. true/reasonable/bad
43. true/reasonable/good
44. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
45. false/unreasonable/wrong
46. likely/reasonable/wrong
47. true/reasonable/good
48. likely/reasonable/good
49. false/unreasonable/wrong
50. likely/reasonable/bad
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. True/Not crazy/Not bad
4. True/Reasonable/Good
5. True/Reasonable/Not very good
6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. False/Preposterous/Terrible
8. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Mostly reasonable/Somewhat bad
10. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. False/Not crazy/Not bad
14. False/Batshit crazy/Horrid
15. True/Reasonable/Good
16. False/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Reasonable/Bad
20. True/Reasonable/Bad
21. True/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Reasonable/Bad
23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Not bad
25. True/Slightly crazy/Bad
26. True/Not crazy/Not terrible
27. Likely true/Not crazy/Not bad
28. Likely true/Reasonable/Not bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. True/Reasonable/Good
31. True/Reasonable/Not great
32. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
33. True/Reasonable/Bad
34. False/Preposterous/Bad
35. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. Hopefully false/Unreasonable/Abysmal
38. True/Not crazy/Excellent
39. Hopefully false/Unreasonable/Unethical
40. Hopefully false/Ridiculous/Bad
41. False/Batshit crazy/Bad
42. True/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. False/Batshit crazy/Terrible
45. False/Ridiculous/Bad
46. Hopefully false/Not crazy/Not good
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. True/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Not preposterous/Bad
50. True/Not crazy/Good
LikeLike
1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
True/unreasonable/bad
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
True/reasonable/good
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
false/reasonable/bad
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
true/reasonable/wrong
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
true/unreasonable/wrong
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
false/unreasonable/wrong
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
true/reasonable/good
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
true/reasonable/wrong
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
false/unreasonable/bad
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
true/reasonable/good
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
true/reasonable/good
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
false/unreasonable/wrong
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
false/unreasonable/wrong
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
false/ crazy batshit/very bad
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
false/reasonable/bad
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
true/reasonable/good
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
false/reasonable/good
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
false/reasonable/good
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
false/reasonable/bad
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
true/reasonable/wrong
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
false/reasonable/bad
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
true/reasonable/bad
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
true/unreasonable/bad
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
true/reasonable/bad
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
true/reasonable/bad
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
false/unreasonable/bad
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
true/unreasonable/bad
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
true/reasonable/good
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
false/reasonable/bad
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
true/reasonable/good
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
true/unreasonable/bad
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
true/reasonable/good
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
false/reasonable/bad
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
true/reasonable/good
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
true/reasonable/good
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
true/unreasonable/bad
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
false/unreasonable/bad
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
false/reasonable/bad
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
true/reasonable/bad
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
true/reasonable/good
41. Holding radiologsts to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
false/reasonable/good
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
false/reasonable/bad
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
true/reasonable/good
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
true/reasonable/bad
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
false/unreasonable/bad
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
true/reasonable/good
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
false/unreasonable/bad
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
false/reasonable/bad
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
false/unreasonable/bad
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
true/reasonable/good
LikeLike
1. likely/reasonable/bad
2. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
3. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
4. unlikely/unreasonable/good
5. unlikely/reasonable/bad
6. likely/resonable/bad
7. unlikely/reasonable/bad
8. likely/reasonable/good
9. likely/unreasonable/bad
10. likely/reasonable/good
11. likely/reasonable/bad
12. likely/unreasonable/bad
13. likely/unreasonable/bad
14. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
15. likely/reasonable/good
16. unlikely/reasonable/good
17. unlikely/reasonable/good
18. likely/reasonable/good
19. likely/reasonable/bad
20. likely/reasonable/bad
21. likely/reasonable/bad
22. likely/reasonable/bad
23. likely/unreasonable/bad
24. likely/reasonable/bad
25. likely/reasonable/bad
26. likely/reasonable/bad
27. likely/unreasonable/bad
28. likely/reasonable/bad
29. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
30. likely/unreasonable/bad
31. likely/reasonable/good
32. unlikely/reasonable/good
33. likely/reasonable/bad
34. likely/reasonable/bad
35. likely/reasonable/good
36. likely/reasonable/good
37. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
38. unlikely/reasonable/good
39. likely/reasonable/bad
40. likely/unreasonable//bad
41. likely/reasonable/good
42. unlikely/reasonable/good
43. unlikely/reasonable/good
44. likely/unreasonable/bad
45. unlikely/reasonable/bad
46. unlikely/reasonable/bad
47. likely/reasonable/good
48. likely/reasonable/good
49. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
50. unlikely/reasonable/bad
LikeLike
1.Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
2. True / Reasonable / Good
3. False / Unreasonable / Bad
4. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
5.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
6.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
7.True/Reasonable/Ethical
8. True/Reasonable/Ethical
9. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
10. True/Reasonable/Ethical
11. True/reasonable/right
12. False/unreasonable/wrong
13. True/reasonable/good
14. False/unreasonable/bad
15. False/unreasonable/wrong
16. False/unreasonable/bad
17. False/unreasonable/wrong
18. True/reasonable/good
19. True/reasonable/good
20. True/reasonable/wrong
21. True/reasonable/wrong
22. True/reasonable/wrong
23. true/reasonable/bad
24. true/reasonable/good
25. true/reasonable/bad
26. false/unreasonable/bad
27. true/reasonable/good
28. true/reasonable/bad
29. false/unreasonable/bad
30. false/reasonable/bad
31. false/reasonable/bad
32. true/reasonable/good
33. true/reasonable/good
34. false/unreasonable/bad
35. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
36. True/ Reasonable / Good
37. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
38. Likely Reasonable / Good
39. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
40. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
41. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
42. Likely / Unreasonable/ Bad
43. True/ Reasonable/ Good
44. True/ Reasonable / Good
45. False / Reasonable/ Bad
46. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
47. True/ Reasonable/ Good
48. False/ Unreasonable / Bad
49. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
50. likely/ reasonable/ good
LikeLike
1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
True/Reasonable/Right
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
True/Reasonable/Right
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
True/Reasonable/Right
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
False/Reasonable/Right
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
True/Reasonable/Right
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
False/Reasonable/Right
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
True/Reasonable/Right
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
True/Reasonable/Right
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
True/Reasonable/Right
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
True/Reasonable/Right
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
True/Reasonable/Wrong
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
True/Reasonable/Right
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
False/Reasonable/Right
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
True/Reasonable/Wrong
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
Wrong/Reasonable/Right
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
True/Reasonable/Right
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
True/Reasonable/Right
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
True/Reasonable/Right
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
True/Reasonable/Wrong
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
True/Unreasonable/Wrong
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
True/Reasonable/Right
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
True/Reasonable/Right
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
True/Unreasonable/Right
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
False/Unreasonable/Wrong
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
True/Reasonable/Right
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
True/Reasonable/Right
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
True/Reasonable/Right
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
True/Reasonable/Right
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
True/Unreasonable/Right
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
False/Reasonable/Wrong
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1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
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10.True/Reasonable/Good
11.Likely/Reasonable/Good
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14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. False/Unreasonable/Bad
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Reasonable/Good
20. True/Reasonable/Bad
21. True/Reasonable/Good
22. True/Reasonable/Good
23. True/Reasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Wrong
25. True/Reasonable/Bad
26.True/Reasonable/Bad
27. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
28. True/Reasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. True/Reasonable/Good
31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Reasonable/Bad
34. False/Reasonable/Good
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
38. False/Reasonable/Bad
39. True/Reasonable/Bad
40. True/Reasonable/Good
41. False/Reasonable/Good
42. False/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Bad
44. True/Unreasonable/Good
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46. True/Unreasonable/Bad
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. False/Unreasonable/Good
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27. true / reasonable / good
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36. true / reasonable / good
37. likely / reasonable / bad
38. true / reasonable / good
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40. likely / reasonable / wrong
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42. true / reasonable / bad
43. likely / reasonable / good
44. false / crazy / bad
45. false / unreasonable / wrong
46. likely / reasonable / good
47. true / reasonable / right
48. likely / reasonable / good
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50. true / reasonable / good
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41) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
42) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
43) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
44) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
45) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
46) True/ Reasonable/ Good
47) True/Reasonable/ Good
48) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
49) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
50) True/ Reasonable/ Good
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