Predictions in a Counterintuitive World

Counterintuitive Predictions

1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are True or False.

2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Reasonable or Unreasonable.

3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Good or Bad, Ethical or Unethical, Moral or Immoral.

Your Predictions

Before hearing about the Mammogram team at Kaiser Permanente Hospital or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.

First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).

Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).

Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)

Respond in three ways for each Premise.

1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right

Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?

The Article

Mammogram Team Learns from its Errors

The Premises

1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

About davidbdale

Inventor of and sole practitioner of 299-word Very Short Novels. www.davidbdale.wordpress.com
This entry was posted in Assignments, Counterintuitive, davidbdale, E08: Counterintuitive Predictions, Professor Post. Bookmark the permalink.

31 Responses to Predictions in a Counterintuitive World

  1. sixfortyfive645 says:

    1. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    2. true / reasonable / good
    3. false / unreasonable / bad
    4. true / reasonable / bad
    5. likely / reasonable / good
    6. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    7. likely / reasonable / bad
    8. true / reasonable / good
    9. likely / reasonable / bad
    10. likely / reasonable / good
    11. likely / reasonable / bad
    12. likely / reasonable / bad
    13. true / reasonable / bad
    14. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    15. likely / reasonable / good
    16. likely / reasonable / bad
    17. likely / reasonable / good
    18. true / reasonable / good
    19. likely / reasonable / bad
    20. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    21. likely / reasonable / good
    22. likely / reasonable / bad
    23. likely / reasonable / bad
    24. true / reasonable / bad
    25. likely / reasonable / bad
    26. true / reasonable / bad
    27. likely / reasonable / good
    28. true / reasonable / bad
    29. true / reasonable / bad
    30. likely / not crazy / good
    31. likely / reasonable / bad
    32. true / reasonable / good
    33. false / unreasonable / bad
    34. false / unreasonable / wrong
    35. likely / reasonable / good
    36. likely / reasonable / good
    37. likely / reasonable / bad
    38. likely / reasonable / good
    39. unlikely / unreasonable / wrong
    40. likely / reasonable / wrong
    41. likely / reasonable / bad
    42. likely / reasonable / bad
    43. likely / reasonable / good
    44. likely / reasonable / good
    45. true / reasonable / bad
    46. likely / reasonable / good
    47. true / reasonable / good
    48. true / reasonable / good
    49. false / reasonable / good
    50. likely / reasonable / bad

    Like

  2. bigfoot9 says:

    1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    2.True/Reasonable/Good
    3.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5.True/Reasonable/Good
    6.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    7.True/Reasonable/Good
    8.True/Reasonable/Good
    9.True/Reasonable/Good
    10.False/Reasonable/Good
    11.True/Reasonable/Good
    12.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    13.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    14.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15.False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    16.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    17.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    18.True/Reasonable/Good
    19.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    20.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    21.False/Reasonable/Bad
    22.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    23.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    24.Likely/Unreasonable/Good
    25.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    26.True/Reasonable/Bad
    27.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    28.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    29.True/Reasonable/Good
    30.True/Reasonable/Good
    31.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    32.True/Reasonable/Good
    33.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    34.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    35.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    36.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    37.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    38.True/Reasonable/Good
    39.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    40.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    41.True/Reasonable/Good
    42.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    43.True/Reasonable/Good
    44.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    45.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    46.Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    47.True/Reasonable/Good
    48.Likely/Unreasonable/Good
    49.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50.Likely/Reasonable/Good

    Like

  3. 8. False/reasonable/good
    9. False/reasonable/bad
    10. False/reasonable/good
    11. True/reasonable/right
    12. False/unreasonable/wrong
    13. True/reasonable/good
    14. False/unreasonable/bad
    15. False/unreasonable/wrong
    16. False/unreasonable/bad
    17. False/unreasonable/wrong
    18. True/reasonable/good
    19. True/reasonable/good
    20. True/reasonable/wrong
    21. True/reasonable/wrong
    22. True/reasonable/wrong
    23. True/unreasonable/wrong
    24. True/reasonable/bad
    25. False/reasonable/bad
    26. True/reasonable/right
    27. True/reasonable/good
    28. True/reasonable/right
    29. True/reasonable/right
    30. True/reasonable/right
    31. True/reasonable/wrong
    32. True/reasonable/good
    33. False/unreasonable/bad
    34. False/unreasonable/bad
    35. False/reasonable/right
    36. True/reasonable/good
    37. False/unreasonable/bad
    38. True/reasonable/good
    39. False/unreasonable/wrong
    40. False/unreasonable/good
    41. False/unreasonable/wrong
    42. Unlikely/unreasonable/bad
    43. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    44. False/unreasonable/bad
    45. False/unreasonable/wrong
    46. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    47. True/reasonable/right
    48. True/reasonable/right
    49. True/reasonable/right
    50. True/reasonable/good

    Like

  4. haveanelephantasticday says:

    1.false/ unreasonable/ bad

    2.unlikely/ reasonable/ bad

    3. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    4.false/ unreasonable/ bad

    5. unlikely/ unreaonable/bad

    6. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    7. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad

    8. likely/ reasonable/ good

    9. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    10. likely/ reasonable/ good

    11. likely/ reasonable/ good

    12. likely/ reasonable/ bad

    13. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    14. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    15. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    16. likely/ reasonable/ good

    17. unlikely/ unreasonable/ good

    18. false/ unreasonable/ good

    19. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    20. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    21. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    22. likely/ reasonable/ bad

    23. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    24. unlikely/ unreasonable/ good

    25. false/ unreasonable/ good

    26. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    27. likely/ reasonable/ good

    28. likely/ reasonable/ bad

    29. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    30. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    31. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    32. likely/ reasonable/ good

    33.unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    34. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    35.likely/ reasonable/ good

    36. likely/ reasonable/ good

    37. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    38. likely/ reasonable/ bad

    39. likely/ unreasonable/ bad

    40. likely/ unreasonable/ bad

    41. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad

    42. likely/ reasonable/ bad

    43. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    44. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    45. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    46. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    47. false/ unreasonable/ bad

    48. likely/ reasonable/ good

    49. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad

    50. likely/ reasonable/ good

    Like

  5. abcdefg577 says:

    1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. True/Reasonable/Good
    5. True/Reasonable/Good
    6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. False/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    10. False/Reasonable/Good
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. True/Reasonable/Bad
    14. True/Reasonable/Good
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. False/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    20. False/Reasonable/Bad
    21. True/Reasonable/Bad
    22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Bad
    25. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    26. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    32. False/Reasonable/Bad
    33.
    34.
    35.
    36.
    37.
    38.
    39.
    40.
    41.
    42.
    43.
    44.
    45.
    46.
    47.
    48.
    49.
    50.

    Like

    • abcdefg577 says:

      1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      2. True/Reasonable/Good
      3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      4. True/Reasonable/Good
      5. True/Reasonable/Good
      6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      7. False/Reasonable/Good
      8. True/Reasonable/Good
      9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      10. False/Reasonable/Good
      11. True/Reasonable/Good
      12. True/Reasonable/Good
      13. True/Reasonable/Bad
      14. True/Reasonable/Good
      15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      16. False/Reasonable/Good
      17. True/Reasonable/Good
      18. True/Reasonable/Good
      19. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      20. False/Reasonable/Bad
      21. True/Reasonable/Bad
      22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      24. True/Reasonable/Bad
      25. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      26. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      32. False/Reasonable/Bad
      33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      34. False/Unreasonable/Good
      35. False/Reasonable/Good
      36. True/Reasonable/Good
      37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      38. True/Reasonable/Good
      39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      40. True/Unreasonable/Bad
      41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      42. False/Reasonable/Bad
      43.False/Unreasonable/Bad
      44. True/Reasonable/Bad
      45. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      46. True/Reasonable/Good
      47. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      48. False/Reasonable/Bad
      49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
      50. False/Reasonable/Bad

      Like

  6. thirdlady226 says:

    1. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    2. True / Reasonable / Good
    3. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    4. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    5. True / Reasonable / Good
    6. False / Reasonable / Good
    7. False / Reasonable / Wrong
    8. True / Reasonable / Right
    9. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    10. False / Crazy / Bad
    11. True / Reasonable / Good
    12. True / Reasonable / Good
    13. False / Reasonable / Bad
    14. False / Crazy / Wrong
    15. True / Reasonable / Good
    16. True / Reasonable / Right
    17. True / Reasonable / Good
    18. True / Reasonable / Good
    19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    20. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    21. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    22. True / Reasonable / Bad
    23. True / Reasonable / Right
    24. True / Reasonable / Right
    25. True / Reasonable / Right
    26. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    27. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    28. True / Reasonable / Bad
    29. True / Reasonable / Right
    30. True / Reasonable / Right
    31. True / Reasonable / Bad
    32. True / Reasonable / Right
    33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    34. False / Reasonable / Bad
    35. True / Reasonable / Good
    36. True / Reasonable / Good
    37. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    38. True / Reasonable / Good
    39. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    40. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    41. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    42. True / Unreasonable / Ba
    43. True / Reasonable / Right
    44. False / Crazy / Bad
    45. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    46. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    47. True / Reasonable / Right
    48. True / Reasonable / Good
    49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    50. True / Reasonable / Good

    Like

  7. tpaz1 says:

    8.True/Not Crazy/Right
    9. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Wrong
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. True/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. False/Reasonable/Bad
    20. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    22. True/Reasonable/Good
    23. True/Reasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Good
    25. True/Reasonable/Bad
    26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    27. True/Reasonable/Good
    28.

    Like

  8. wildcuttlefish says:

    1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
    True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong

    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong

    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    True/reasonable/Good

    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    False/ Reasonable/Good

    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    True/Reasonable/Bad

    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    False/not crazy/good

    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    True/reasonable/Good

    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    True/Reasonable/Bad

    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    True/reasonable/Bad

    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    True/Reasonable/Right

    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    False/Unreasonable/Good

    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    True/Reasonable/Good

    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    False/Unreasonable/Good

    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    False/Unreasonable/Bad

    40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad

    41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.

    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

    Like

  9. dancingueen says:

    8.true
    reasonable
    good
    9.unlikely
    unreasonable
    wrong
    10.true
    reasonable
    right
    11.unlikely
    unreasonable
    wrong
    12.likely
    reasonable
    good
    13.likely
    reasonable
    good
    14.fale
    unreasonable
    bad
    15.true
    reasonable
    good
    16.likely
    reasonable
    good
    17.unlikely
    reasonable
    bad
    18.false
    unlikely
    bad
    19.true
    reasonable
    bad
    20.

    Like

  10. fromcasablanca says:

    8. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    9. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    10. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    11. Likely/ Not Crazy/ Right
    12. Unlikely/ Batshit Crazy/ Wrong
    13. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    15. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
    16. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
    17. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    18. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    19. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    20. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    21. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    22. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    24. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    26. True/Reasonable/Bad
    27. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    28. True/ Reasonable/Right
    29. True/Reasonable/Good
    30. True/ Not Insane/Good
    31. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    34. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    36.Likely/Reasonable/Good

    Like

  11. luckyleprechaun1 says:

    8. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    9. False / Reasonable / Wrong
    10. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    11. True / Reasonable / Good
    12. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    13. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    14. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    15. False / Unreasonable / Good
    16. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    17. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    18. True / Reasonable / Good
    19. Unlikely / Not Crazy / Right
    20.

    Like

  12. dt2018 says:

    8. false/reasonable/good
    9. false/reasonable/bad
    10. false/reasonable/good
    11. true/reasonable/right
    12. false/unreasonable/wrong
    13. true/reasonable/good
    14. false/unreasonable/bad
    15. false/unreasonable/wrong
    16. false/unreasonable/bad
    17. false/unreasonable/wrong
    18. true/reasonable/good
    19. true/reasonable/good
    20. true/reasonable/wrong
    21. true/reasonable/wrong
    22. true/reasonable/wrong
    23. true/unreasonable/wrong
    24. true/reasonable/bad
    25. false/reasonable/bad
    26. true/reasonable/right
    27. true/reasonable/good
    28. true/reasonable/right
    29. true/reasonable/right
    30. true/reasonable/right
    31. true/reasonable/wrong
    32. true/reasonable/good
    33. false/unreasonable/bad
    34. false/unreasonable/bad
    35. false/reasonable/right
    36. true/reasonable/good
    37. false/reasonable/bad
    38. true/reasonable/good

    Like

  13. bj112295 says:

    bj112295

    1. False / Reasonable / Bad
    2. True / Unreasonable / Good
    3. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    4. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    5. True / Reasonable / Good
    6. False / Reasonable / Bad
    7. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    8. True / Not Crazy / Great
    9. False / Unfair / Wrong
    10. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    11. True / Not Crazy / Right
    12. True / Reasonable / Great
    13. True / Unreasonable / Good
    14. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
    15. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    16. True / Not Crazy / Great
    17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    18. Likely / Not Crazy / Right
    19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    20. False / Reasonable / Right
    21. True / Not Crazy / Good
    22. Likely / Not Crazy / Bad
    23. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    24. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    25. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    26. Not Likely / Not Crazy / Right
    27. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
    28. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    30. True / Reasonable / Good
    31. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    32. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    33. True / Not Crazy / Good
    34. Likely / Not Crazy / Wrong
    35. True / Reasonable / Great
    36.

    Like

  14. cswilliams15 says:

    1) Unlikely/ Not insane / Wrong
    2) True/ Reasonable/ Right
    3) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
    4) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
    5) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    6) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    7) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    8) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    9) Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    10) False/ Reasonable/ Good
    11) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    12) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    13) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    14) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    15) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    16) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    17) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    18) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    19) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    20) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    21) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    22) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    24) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    25) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    26) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    27) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    28) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    29) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    30) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    31) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    32) True/Reasonable/ Good
    33) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    34) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    35) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    36) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    37) False/ Reasonable/ Bad
    38) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    39) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    40) False/ Reasonable/ Good
    41) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    42) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    43) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    44) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    45) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    46) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    47) True/Reasonable/ Good
    48) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    49) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    50) True/ Reasonable/ Good

    Like

  15. fromcasablanca says:

    8. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    9. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    10. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    11. Likely/ Not Crazy/ Right
    12. Unlikely/ Batshit Crazy/ Wrong
    13. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    15. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
    16. Likely/ Reasonable/ Right
    17. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    18. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    19. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    20. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    21. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    22. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    24. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    26. True/Reasonable/Bad
    27. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    28. True/ Reasonable/Right
    29. True/Reasonable/Good
    30. True/ Not Insane/Good
    31. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    34. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    36.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    37. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    38.True/Reasonable/Good
    39.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    41.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    45. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    46. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    50.Likely/Reasonable/Bad

    Like

  16. bj112295 says:

    bj112295

    1. False / Reasonable / Bad
    2. True / Unreasonable / Good
    3. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    4. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    5. True / Reasonable / Good
    6. False / Reasonable / Bad
    7. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    8. True / Not Crazy / Great
    9. False / Unfair / Wrong
    10. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    11. True / Not Crazy / Right
    12. True / Reasonable / Great
    13. True / Unreasonable / Good
    14. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
    15. Likely / Reasonable / Right
    16. True / Not Crazy / Great
    17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    18. Likely / Not Crazy / Right
    19. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    20. False / Reasonable / Right
    21. True / Not Crazy / Good
    22. Likely / Not Crazy / Bad
    23. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    24. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    25. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    26. Not Likely / Not Crazy / Right
    27. False / Batshit Crazy / Wrong
    28. True / Reasonable / Wrong
    29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    30. True / Reasonable / Good
    31. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    32. False / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    33. True / Not Crazy / Good
    34. Likely / Not Crazy / Wrong
    35. True / Reasonable / Great
    36. True / Reasonable /Good
    37. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    38.True/Reasonable/Good
    39.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    41.Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    45. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    46. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    50.Likely/Reasonable/Bad

    Like

  17. belldere says:

    1.False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    2. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    3. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    4. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    5. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    6. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    7. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    8. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    9. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    10. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    11. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    12. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    13. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    14. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    15. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    16. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    17. False/ Reasonable/ Good

    18. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    19. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    20. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    21. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    22. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    23. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    24. False/ Unreasonable/ Good

    25. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    26. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    27. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    28. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    29. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    30. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    31. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    32. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    33. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    34. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    35. False/ Reasonable/ Good

    36. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    37. True/ Reasonable/ Bad

    38. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    39. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    40. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    41. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    42. True/ Reaosnable/ Bad

    43. True/ Reasonable/ Good

    44. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    45. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    46. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    47. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    48. True/ Reasonable/Bad

    49. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad

    50. False/ Reasonable/ Bad

    Like

  18. tpaz1 says:

    1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. False/Reasonable/Bad
    8. True/Not Crazy/Right
    9. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Wrong
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. True/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. False/Reasonable/Bad
    20. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    22. True/Reasonable/Good
    23. True/Reasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Good
    25. True/Reasonable/Bad
    26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    27. True/Reasonable/Good
    28. True/Reasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Reasonable/Good
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. False/Reasonable/Bad
    37. True/Unreasonable/Good
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. False/Reasonable/Bad
    41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Bad
    44. True/Unreasonable/Good
    45. False/Reasonable/Bad
    46. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. False/Unreasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. True/Reasonable.Good

    Like

  19. themildewmuncher7 says:

    1. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    2. False / Reasonable / Good
    3. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    4. True / Reasonable / Good
    5. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    6. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
    7. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    8. Unlikely / Reasonable / Very right
    9. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    10. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    11. False / Reasonable / Bad
    12. True / Reasonable / Good
    13. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    14. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    15. True / Unreasonable / Good
    16. False / Reasonable / Good
    17. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    18. True / Reasonable / Good
    19. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    20. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    21. True / Reasonable / Bad
    22. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    23. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    24. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    25. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    26. True / Reasonable / Good
    27. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    28. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    29. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    30. True / Reasonable / Good
    31. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    32. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    34. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    35. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    36. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    37. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    38. Unlikely / Reasonable / Very good
    39. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    40. Likely / Somewhat reasonable / Bad
    41. Likely / Reasonable / Both
    42. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    43. False / Reasonable / Good
    44. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    45. Likely / Unreasonable / Good
    46. True / Reasonable / Good
    47. True / Reasonable / Bad
    48. True / Reasonable / Good
    49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    50. True / Unreasonable / Good

    Like

  20. marinebio18 says:

    1. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    2. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    3. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    4. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    5. False / Unreasonable/ Bad
    6. True / Reasonable / Bad
    7.True/ Reasonable/ Right
    8.True/ Reasonable/ Good
    9. True / Reasonable/ Bad
    10.True / Reasonable / Good
    11.Likely / Reasonable / Good
    12. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    13. True/ Unreasonable/ Good
    14. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    15. False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    16. False, Unreasonable/ Bad
    17. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    18. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    19. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    20. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    21. Likely / Reasonable/ Bad
    22. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23. True/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    24. True/ Reasonable / Bad
    25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    26. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    27. Likely/ Unreasonable / Bad
    28. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    29.Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    30. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    31. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    32. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
    33. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
    34. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    35. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
    36. True/ Reasonable / Good
    37. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    38. Likely Reasonable / Good
    39. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    40. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    41. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    42. Likely / Unreasonable/ Bad
    43. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    44. True/ Reasonable / Good
    45. False / Reasonable/ Bad
    46. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    47. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    48. False/ Unreasonable / Bad
    49. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    50. Likely / Reasonable/ Bad

    Like

  21. palal24 says:

    1.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
    2.True/Reasonable/Ethical
    3.False/Unreasonable/Unethical
    4.False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    5.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
    6.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
    7.True/Reasonable/Ethical
    8. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    9. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    10. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    11. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
    12. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
    13. False/Reasonable/Unethical
    14. True/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    15. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    16. False/Reasonable/Unethical
    17. True/Reasonable/Unethical
    18. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    19. False/Unreasonable/Unethical
    20. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
    21. True/Reasonable/Unethical
    22. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    23. True/Unreasonable/Unethical
    24. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    25. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    26. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    27. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    28. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    29. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    30. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    31. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
    32. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    33. False/Unreasonable/Unethical
    34. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    35. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    36. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    37. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    38. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    39. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
    40. Likely/Reasonable/Not Wrong
    41. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    42. Likely/Reasonable/Unethical
    43. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    44. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    45. Unlikely/Unreasonable/Bad
    46. Unlikely/Reasonable/Unethical
    47. False/Reasonable/Not Wrong
    48. Likely/Reasonable/Ethical
    49. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    50. True/Reasonable/Ethical

    Like

  22. americangods01 says:

    1. true/unreasonable/bad
    2. likely/unreasonable/bad
    3. false/unreasonable/bad
    4. true/reasonable/good
    5. false/unreasonable/bad
    6. true/unreasonable/bad
    7. true/unreasonable/bad
    8. false/reasonable/good
    9. false/reasonable/good
    10. true/reasonable/good
    11. false/reasoable/good
    12. true/reasonable/good
    13. true/unreasonable/bad
    14. false/unreasonable/bad
    15. false/unreasonable/good
    16. false/unreasonable/good
    17. false/unreasonable/bad
    18. false/reasonable/good
    19. true/unreasonable/good
    20. false/unreasonable/bad
    21. false/unreasonable/bad
    22. true/reasonable/good
    23. true/reasonable/bad
    24. true/reasonable/good
    25. true/reasonable/bad
    26. false/unreasonable/bad
    27. true/reasonable/good
    28. true/reasonable/bad
    29. false/unreasonable/bad
    30. false/reasonable/bad
    31. false/reasonable/bad
    32. true/reasonable/good
    33. true/reasonable/good
    34. false/unreasonable/bad
    35. false/reasonable/good
    36. true/reasonable/good
    37. true/reasonable/bad
    38. true/reasonable/good
    39. false/unreasonable/bad
    40. likely/unreasonable/bad
    41. likely/reasonable/bad
    42. true/reasonable/bad
    43. true/reasonable/good
    44. unlikely/unreasonable/bad
    45. false/unreasonable/wrong
    46. likely/reasonable/wrong
    47. true/reasonable/good
    48. likely/reasonable/good
    49. false/unreasonable/wrong
    50. likely/reasonable/bad

    Like

  23. douglasadams525 says:

    1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. True/Not crazy/Not bad
    4. True/Reasonable/Good
    5. True/Reasonable/Not very good
    6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. False/Preposterous/Terrible
    8. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Mostly reasonable/Somewhat bad
    10. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. False/Not crazy/Not bad
    14. False/Batshit crazy/Horrid
    15. True/Reasonable/Good
    16. False/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Reasonable/Bad
    20. True/Reasonable/Bad
    21. True/Reasonable/Bad
    22. True/Reasonable/Bad
    23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Not bad
    25. True/Slightly crazy/Bad
    26. True/Not crazy/Not terrible
    27. Likely true/Not crazy/Not bad
    28. Likely true/Reasonable/Not bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. True/Reasonable/Good
    31. True/Reasonable/Not great
    32. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
    33. True/Reasonable/Bad
    34. False/Preposterous/Bad
    35. Hopefully true/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. Hopefully false/Unreasonable/Abysmal
    38. True/Not crazy/Excellent
    39. Hopefully false/Unreasonable/Unethical
    40. Hopefully false/Ridiculous/Bad
    41. False/Batshit crazy/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. False/Batshit crazy/Terrible
    45. False/Ridiculous/Bad
    46. Hopefully false/Not crazy/Not good
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Not preposterous/Bad
    50. True/Not crazy/Good

    Like

  24. bigcounrty609 says:

    1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
    True/unreasonable/bad
    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    True/reasonable/good
    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
    false/reasonable/bad
    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    true/reasonable/good
    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    true/reasonable/good
    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    true/reasonable/good
    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    false/ crazy batshit/very bad
    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    false/reasonable/bad
    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    true/reasonable/good
    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    false/reasonable/good
    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    false/reasonable/good
    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    false/reasonable/bad
    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    false/reasonable/bad
    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    true/reasonable/bad
    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    true/reasonable/bad
    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    true/reasonable/bad
    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    true/reasonable/good
    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
    false/reasonable/bad
    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
    true/reasonable/good
    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    true/reasonable/good
    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    false/reasonable/bad
    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    true/reasonable/good
    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    true/reasonable/good
    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    false/reasonable/bad
    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    true/reasonable/bad
    40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    true/reasonable/good
    41. Holding radiologsts to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
    false/reasonable/good
    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    false/reasonable/bad
    43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    true/reasonable/good
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    true/reasonable/bad
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    true/reasonable/good
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    false/reasonable/bad
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
    true/reasonable/good

    Like

  25. brxttyb says:

    1. likely/reasonable/bad

    2. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    3. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    4. unlikely/unreasonable/good

    5. unlikely/reasonable/bad

    6. likely/resonable/bad

    7. unlikely/reasonable/bad

    8. likely/reasonable/good

    9. likely/unreasonable/bad

    10. likely/reasonable/good

    11. likely/reasonable/bad

    12. likely/unreasonable/bad

    13. likely/unreasonable/bad

    14. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    15. likely/reasonable/good

    16. unlikely/reasonable/good

    17. unlikely/reasonable/good

    18. likely/reasonable/good

    19. likely/reasonable/bad

    20. likely/reasonable/bad

    21. likely/reasonable/bad

    22. likely/reasonable/bad

    23. likely/unreasonable/bad

    24. likely/reasonable/bad

    25. likely/reasonable/bad

    26. likely/reasonable/bad

    27. likely/unreasonable/bad

    28. likely/reasonable/bad

    29. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    30. likely/unreasonable/bad

    31. likely/reasonable/good

    32. unlikely/reasonable/good

    33. likely/reasonable/bad

    34. likely/reasonable/bad

    35. likely/reasonable/good

    36. likely/reasonable/good

    37. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    38. unlikely/reasonable/good

    39. likely/reasonable/bad

    40. likely/unreasonable//bad

    41. likely/reasonable/good

    42. unlikely/reasonable/good

    43. unlikely/reasonable/good

    44. likely/unreasonable/bad

    45. unlikely/reasonable/bad

    46. unlikely/reasonable/bad

    47. likely/reasonable/good

    48. likely/reasonable/good

    49. unlikely/unreasonable/bad

    50. unlikely/reasonable/bad

    Like

  26. peachesxo says:

    1.Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    2. True / Reasonable / Good
    3. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    4. False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    5.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
    6.Unlikely/Unreasonable/Unethical
    7.True/Reasonable/Ethical
    8. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    9. False/Unreasonable/Not Wrong
    10. True/Reasonable/Ethical
    11. True/reasonable/right
    12. False/unreasonable/wrong
    13. True/reasonable/good
    14. False/unreasonable/bad
    15. False/unreasonable/wrong
    16. False/unreasonable/bad
    17. False/unreasonable/wrong
    18. True/reasonable/good
    19. True/reasonable/good
    20. True/reasonable/wrong
    21. True/reasonable/wrong
    22. True/reasonable/wrong
    23. true/reasonable/bad
    24. true/reasonable/good
    25. true/reasonable/bad
    26. false/unreasonable/bad
    27. true/reasonable/good
    28. true/reasonable/bad
    29. false/unreasonable/bad
    30. false/reasonable/bad
    31. false/reasonable/bad
    32. true/reasonable/good
    33. true/reasonable/good
    34. false/unreasonable/bad
    35. Likely / Reasonable/ Good
    36. True/ Reasonable / Good
    37. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    38. Likely Reasonable / Good
    39. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    40. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    41. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    42. Likely / Unreasonable/ Bad
    43. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    44. True/ Reasonable / Good
    45. False / Reasonable/ Bad
    46. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    47. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    48. False/ Unreasonable / Bad
    49. unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    50. likely/ reasonable/ good

    Like

  27. breadpatrol99 says:

    1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    False/Reasonable/Right
    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    False/Reasonable/Right
    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    False/Reasonable/Right
    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    Wrong/Reasonable/Right
    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    True/Unreasonable/Right
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    True/Unreasonable/Right
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
    False/Reasonable/Wrong

    Like

  28. twofoursixohtwo says:

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    4. True/Reasonable/Good
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. True/Reasonable/Bad
    7.True/Reasonable/Good
    8.True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Reasonable/Bad
    10.True/Reasonable/Good
    11.Likely/Reasonable/Good
    12. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    13. True/Unreasonable/Good
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Reasonable/Good
    20. True/Reasonable/Bad
    21. True/Reasonable/Good
    22. True/Reasonable/Good
    23. True/Reasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    25. True/Reasonable/Bad
    26.True/Reasonable/Bad
    27. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    28. True/Reasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. True/Reasonable/Good
    31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Reasonable/Bad
    34. False/Reasonable/Good
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. False/Reasonable/Bad
    39. True/Reasonable/Bad
    40. True/Reasonable/Good
    41. False/Reasonable/Good
    42. False/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Bad
    44. True/Unreasonable/Good
    45. False/Reasonable/Bad
    46. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. False/Unreasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. True/Reasonable/Good

    Like

  29. jcirrs says:

    1. unlikely / unreasonable / bad
    2. true / reasonable / good
    3. false / unreasonable / bad
    4. false / unreasonable / wrong
    5. likely / reasonable / good
    6. true / unreasonable / bad
    7. likely / reasonable / bad
    8. true / reasonable / right
    9. false / reasonable / good
    10. false / crazy / bad
    11. false / reasonable / good
    12. likely / reasonable / bad
    13. true / reasonable / bad
    14. false / unreasonable / bad
    15. false / unreasonable / good
    16. true / reasonable / right
    17. likely / reasonable / good
    18. false / reasonable / good
    19. likely / reasonable / bad
    20. true / unreasonable / bad
    21. false / unreasonable / bad
    22. likely / reasonable / bad
    23. true / reasonable / right
    24. true / reasonable / good
    25. likely / reasonable / bad
    26. true / unreasonable / bad
    27. true / reasonable / good
    28. true / reasonable / bad
    29. true / reasonable / right
    30. false / reasonable / bad
    31. likely / reasonable / bad
    32. true / reasonable / right
    33. true / reasonable / good
    34. false / unreasonable / wrong
    35. true / reasonable / good
    36. true / reasonable / good
    37. likely / reasonable / bad
    38. true / reasonable / good
    39. false / unreasonable / bad
    40. likely / reasonable / wrong
    41. false / unreasonable / bad
    42. true / reasonable / bad
    43. likely / reasonable / good
    44. false / crazy / bad
    45. false / unreasonable / wrong
    46. likely / reasonable / good
    47. true / reasonable / right
    48. likely / reasonable / good
    49. false / reasonable / good
    50. true / reasonable / good

    Like

  30. gemfhi says:

    1) Unlikely/ Not insane / Wrong
    2) True/ Reasonable/ Right
    3) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
    4) False/ Unreasonable/ Just Wrong
    5) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    6) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    7) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    8) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    9) Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    10) False/ Reasonable/ Good
    11) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    12) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    13) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    14) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    15) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    16) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    17) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    18) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    19) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    20) Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    21) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    22) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    24) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    25) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    26) False/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    27) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    28) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    29) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    30) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    31) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    32) True/Reasonable/ Good
    33) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    34) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    35) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    36) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    37) False/ Reasonable/ Bad
    38) True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    39) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    40) False/ Reasonable/ Good
    41) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    42) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    43) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    44) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    45) Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    46) True/ Reasonable/ Good
    47) True/Reasonable/ Good
    48) Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    49) Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    50) True/ Reasonable/ Good

    Like

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